The debris is 10-stories tall and weighs twice as much as a school bus, which is drawing concern, as experts aren’t sure where it will land. There’s a small chance it could hit New York, Los Angeles, Madrid, Rio de Janeiro, the Nigerian capital of Abuja, or Beijing, but California-based Aerospace Corporation believes there’s a 75% chance it will land in the ocean. It adds that 60-80% of the rocket remnant will burn up — but the rest will likely hit ground or water.
Don Pollacco, a physics professor at England’s University of Warwick, weighed in on the situation, stating, “This is like playing the lottery. You have got a big lump of metal in space that’s in a declining orbit because it’s rubbing up against the atmosphere. It will hit the atmosphere, bounce around a bit and it’s correct to say most of the planet is covered by water, so that’s where it will likely land.”